forum Politics and Society ›› The Weather & Climate Change ›› new reply Post Reply
Jason Voorheees
dogfood meatballs
6,445 Posts
39/M/NY


offline   (4)
January 8 2013 5:02 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
2012 hottest year on record in contiguous U.S., NOAA says

Washington Post Tuesday, January 8, 1:00 PM

Last year was the hottest on record for the contiguous United States, shattering the previous mark set in 1998 by a wide margin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Tuesday.

The average temperature was 55.3 degrees, 1 degree above the previous record and 3.2 degrees more than the 20th-century average. Temperatures were above normal in every month between June 2011 and September 2012, a 16-month stretch that hasn’t occurred since the government began keeping such records in 1895.

Federal scientists said that the data are compelling evidence that climate change is affecting weather in the United States and suggest that the nation’s weather is likely to be hotter, drier and potentially more extreme than it would have been without the warmer temperatures.

Last year’s record temperature is “clearly symptomatic of a changing climate,” said Thomas R. Karl, who directs NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. Americans can now see the sustained warmth over the course of their own lifetimes — “something we haven’t seen before.” He added, “That doesn’t mean every season and every year is going to be breaking all-time records, but you’re going to see this with increasing frequency.”

Alaska and the Pacific Northwest didn’t experience record-setting heat last year; a cool-weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean kept temperatures lower.

Although the new analysis focuses on the United States, it has triggered an intense debate over whether global temperatures will reach dangerous levels by the century’s end. In 2009, the world’s leaders pledged to keep global temperatures from rising above pre-industrial levels by 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Now many academics and policymakers say that goal may be out of reach.

“We have to begin the conversation about cruising past 2 degrees, because we’re on course for that,” said John Podesta, who chairs the liberal think tank Center for American Progress. “It’s hard to contemplate and scary to contemplate, but it has to be addressed at this point.”

Vanderbilt Law School professor Michael Vandenbergh said today’s leaders will be judged harshly by future generations for not focusing on climate change.

“A hundred years from now, they’re not going to be talking about health care or the fiscal cliff,” he said. “But they will ask, ‘What did you do when we knew we were going to have serious climate change?’ ”

John R. Christy, who directs the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, said some researchers are exaggerating the severity of the threat. He said that the right climate target is “in the mind of the beholder,” given that rising energy demand is a sign that many poor people are struggling “to be lifted out of their current condition.”

“No one in Washington can stop that,” he said. “And, right now, carbon is the most accessible and affordable way to supply that energy — so CO2 emissions will continue to rise because of the undeniable benefit carbon energy brings to human life.”

The International Energy Agency estimated last month that coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’s top energy source in 2017 , when an additional 1.2 billion metric tons will be burned annually. In late November, the World Resources Institute reported there are nearly 1,200 proposed coal plants around the globe, three-quarters of which are planned for China and India.

By Jan. 1 of this year, the Kyoto Protocol was supposed to have cut the world’s greenhouse gas output by 5 percent compared with 1990 levels. While the signatories as a whole are likely to meet that target, in part because of the shutdown of Eastern European factories during the 1990s, global carbon emissions overall rose 54 percent during that same period, according to the Global Carbon Project.

As a result, many experts are engaged in a discussion over whether they should continue pressing for ambitious carbon cuts in the near term or adjust their goals in the face of the prospect of a much warmer world.

In 2004, Princeton University professors Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacala wrote an influential paper outlining how the world could stabilize its greenhouse emissions by mid-century through a series of “wedges,” using current technology, such as sharply increasing nuclear power worldwide, eliminating deforestation and converting conventional plowing to no-tillage farming.

Now, Socolow has published an article in the Vanderbilt Law Review that he describes as his “let’s get real here” lecture, in which he outlines what the world can realistically achieve over the next four decades. Environmentalists “don’t think it’s time to start the bargaining” on what’s an appropriate climate target, Socolow said, but they need to adjust some of their goals in light of the projected temperature rise.

Compromises include capturing and storing carbon from power plants, he added, “since I don’t think we can put the fossil fuel industry out of business.”

At the same time, some researchers are pushing for much steeper emissions cuts. On Wednesday, the journal Environmental Research Letters will publish a paper showing that although Socolow and Pacala projected emissions could be stabilized by cutting 175 billion tons of carbon emissions over 50 years, accelerating emissions over the past decade mean that it could require more than 500 billion tons of avoided emissions to achieve the same goal.

Steven Davis, a University of California at Irvine earth system science professor and the study’s lead author, said he and his colleagues were seeking a “way to describe the magnitude of the challenge” in tackling climate change.

Chris Field, who directs the Carnegie Institution for Science’s global ecology department at Stanford University, noted that although it is impossible to say whether the world will be “safe” if it limits the temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius, he compared it to “the number of flat tires I can tolerate on a road trip in my car.”

“With even one flat, there is a risk of a serious accident. But because I am a careful driver, and I have a spare, one is probably ok,” he wrote in an e-mail. “With two flats on the trip, I know I don’t have a spare for the second one, and I understand that the risk of a serious accident is increased. .?.?. For more than two flats, things get really messy.”

Several activists who track international climate talks identified the next three years as critical, saying negotiators need to forge a new pact by 2015 in order to lock in needed carbon cuts. Alden Meyer, who directs strategy and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said major emitters will not agree to meaningful cuts until they view it as in “their national self-interest.”

In the United States, a combination of high temperatures and dry conditions last year took a serious toll on the nation’s agricultural sector. NOAA’s Karl noted that the Midwest had been relatively wet for several years, which had curbed the impact of warmer temperatures.

In 2012, he said, “both the day and the nighttime temperatures were breaking their all-time records,” and that combined with drier conditions amounted to “a double whammy.”

The warmest March on record meant vegetation levels were 25 percent higher than normal that month, but many of those crops dried up because 39 percent of the United States experienced severe or extreme drought in 2012.




also





Originally posted by: Jason Voorheees

saw this after irene, seemed relevant again.







.




Want to keep the power on? Bury power lines

By David Frum, CNN Contributor 8/30/11

(CNN) -- Congratulations: If you're reading this, you have electricity. Unfortunately, more than 3 million Americans this weekend couldn't join you. The sweltering heat wave that roasted the eastern United States was accompanied by terrible storms that have knocked out power lines up and down the seaboard.

While you enjoy your air conditioning, you might want to take a minute to consider: Why do Americans tolerate such outages?

Outages are not inevitable. The German power grid has outages at an average rate of 21 minutes per year.

The winds may howl. The trees may fall. But in Germany, the lights stay on.

There's no Teutonic engineering magic to this impressive record. It's achieved by a very simple decision: Germany buries almost all of its low-voltage and medium-voltage power lines, the lines that serve individual homes and apartments. Americans could do the same. They have chosen not to.

The choice has been made for reasons of cost. The industry rule of thumb is that it costs about 10 times as much to bury wire as to string wire overhead: up to $1 million per mile, industry representatives claim. Since American cities are much less dense than European ones, there would be a lot more wire to string to serve a U.S. population than a European one.

Cost matters.

But now reflect:

1. There's reason to think that industry estimates of the cost of burying wires are inflated. While the U.S. industry guesstimates costs, a large-scale study of the problem conducted recently in the United Kingdom estimated the cost premium at 4.5 to 5.5 times the cost of overhead wire, not 10.

2. U.S. cost figures are a moving target. American cities are becoming denser as the baby boomers age and opt for central-city living, as I discussed in a previous column. Denser cities require fewer miles of wire to serve their populations.

3. Costs can only be understood in relation to benefits. As the climate warms, storms and power outages are becoming more common. And as the population ages, power failures become more dangerous. In France, where air conditioning is uncommon, a 2003 heat wave left 10,000 people dead, almost all of them elderly. If burying power lines prevented power outages during the hotter summers ahead, the decision could save many lives.

4. As you may have heard, we're suffering very severe unemployment just at present. Joblessness is acute among less educated workers, many of whom used to work in the now severely depressed construction industry. Burying power lines is a project that could put many hundreds of thousands of the unemployed to work at tasks that make use of their skills and experience.

Meanwhile, the federal government is able to borrow vast sums of money at the lowest interest rates since the Great Depression. The Obama stimulus has to date failed to produce many projects of lasting benefit to the country. But here's one that our children and grandchildren would appreciate -- and that might save our parents' lives.
Jason Voorheees
dogfood meatballs
6,445 Posts
39/M/NY


offline   (4)
January 29 2014 9:09 AM   QuickQuote Quote  




Rare winter storm leaves hundreds of students, drivers stranded in Deep South; 5 die in crashes

Jan. 29, 2014 at 7:32 AM


ATLANTA, Jan. 29 (UPI) -- Hundreds of motorists in Alabama and Georgia spent the night in their vehicles following a snow shower blamed for five deaths in Alabama, officials said.

Freezing rain made driving perilous across Alabama where officials said at least five people died in weather-related traffic accidents, CNN reported.

Alabama Gov. Robert J. Bentley declared a state of emergency and deployed 350 National Guard troops. States of emergency also were declared in Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina.

"This is a very dangerous situation," Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley said. "People need to stay at home. They need to stay there until conditions improve."

Law enforcement officials in both states reported motorists were stranded as long as 12 hours because ice and snow turned roadways into parking lots, CNN said.

Rebekah Cole left work in Atlanta Tuesday afternoon and was still trying to go home at 1 a.m. EST Wednesday. As she prepared to spend the night in her car, she told CNN she hoped it wouldn't run out of fuel.

"If I get gasoline, I will turn the heater on, keep the windows cracked a little bit," she said.

As much as 10 inches of snow fell in parts of Virginia Tuesday and Tuesday night, AccuWeather.com said, including as much as 8 inches in Virginia Beach.

The wintry weather moved eastward across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night, creating hazardous travel conditions along the Interstate-10 and I-95 corridors.

Travelers stranded by the storm sought out strangers' homes, schools, even the big-box hardware chain Home Depot, which opened 26 stores so travelers could escape the elements in Alabama and Georgia, CNN said.

School systems across the south canceled classes Tuesday and Wednesday.

The severe weather forced 4,500 students to spend the night in school buildings in Hoover, Ala., and 800 students were stuck in schools in Birmingham, officials said.

"Staff is staying with them, feeding them," Birmingham City Schools Superintendent Craig Witherspoon said. "High schools are showing movies."

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport canceled nearly 500 flights early Wednesday. Thousands of flights were canceled at airports across the South Tuesday, including the Atlanta airport and George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston.

Tens of thousands of power customers were without power in several states from Florida through Virginia as of Tuesday evening, utility officials said.
Kadesh
Kadesh
37,478 Posts
33/M/PA


offline     (26)
January 31 2014 2:34 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
Every year there is some sort of cry of global warming.....yeah, it's like they said in the article. It's to early to tell.
crunkmoose
Fuck Nazis.
24,526 Posts
60/M/MA


offline   (9)
February 1 2014 1:11 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
Originally posted by: Kadesh

Every year there is some sort of cry of global warming.....yeah, it's like they said in the article. It's to early to tell.



So... every year there is something predicted going on... and we see melting in polar ice and glaciers at historic rates..... yet its still to early to tell?

No, Matt... it is nowhere near too early to tell, and even if it were, waiting around until we were sure (which we are) before doing anything about it would just be downright foolish.
empireofcrime
alley lurker
46 Posts
35/M/KS


offline 
February 5 2014 7:49 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
For those who are interested, the final public comment period for Keystone XL is open(it ends March 7). The final State Department report has come out and even though it's about as limp as expected(at least it acknowledges to some degree the environmental damage the pipeline can do, but then they negate it with the argument "If we don't do it someone else will"). I am still holding out for Obama to refuse it since several things the report does well is that it at least shows some serious numbers in terms of the greenhouse gases the pipeline will give off as well as showing direct temporary and permanent jobs for the pipeline are a drop in the bucket.

Here are some helpful links for anyone that wants to give a public comment on the issue:

commenting page:
click here for link

page for the final State Department environmental report:
click here for link
crunkmoose
Fuck Nazis.
24,526 Posts
60/M/MA


offline   (9)
February 6 2014 4:48 PM   QuickQuote Quote  
No offense, but... as if they are going to let ANYTHING stop them from building this fucking thing and as if there is ANY chance Obama won't approve it no matter how much lip service he gives to environmental concerns about it.
Aldo Leopold
...
27 Posts
20/M/NA


offline   (1)
September 7 2017 11:23 PM   QuickQuote Quote  





Is climate change making mega-hurricanes the new normal?


Less than two weeks after Hurricane Harvey left a swath of deadly destruction in Louisiana and Texas, causing massive flooding in Houston, Hurricane Irma is ripping through the French Carribean.

Irma has already killed at least 10 people on various islands, hitting the dual-island nation of Antigua and Barbuda especially hard.

And already, another tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic behind Irma: Jose, which might hit Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands on Friday and Saturday.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Katia in the Gulf of Mexico has started making its way toward the coast of Mexico, and is forecast to hit the state of Veracruz by early Saturday.

Experts have been warning that such disastrous storms will become more frequent in a warming world. Are Harvey and Irma a sign of what's to come?

While Harvey at its peak was a category 4 hurricane, Irma already is a category 5 monster, with winds of 180 miles per hour (285 kilometers per hour) - one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded. Irma is reportedly so strong, it's registering on earthquake detectors

While people in the US and the Caribbean were quite lucky the last years, "this year's hurricane season is very active," Andreas Friedrich at the German Weather Service in Frankfurt tells DW.

"It's partly due to the El Niño event. After a strong El Niño year - which we had last year - more intense hurricanes tend to form over the Atlantic."

El Niño is a weather phenomenon that is more or less normal.

But rising sea temperatures have indeed made things worse.

"Currently, the Caribbean is seeing warmer sea surface temperatures - around 30 degree Celsius (86 Fahrenheit)," Friedrich says. "And that's another reason for this strong hurricane season."





The magic temperature for formation of hurricanes and other tropical storms is at least 26 degrees Celsius.

The warmer the water is, the more water vaporizes and gets sucked into the storm, fueling the storm and making it more intense.

"More energy in the atmosphere means more potential for extreme weather," Friedrich says.

With rising sea temperatures, the probability that the water surfaces reaches 26 degrees increases, making tropical storms more likely to occur.

Latif says there is a detectable trend, namely relating to how intense those tropical storms are.

"Strong tropical storms [of higher categories] appear to be becoming more frequent."

This is true not only for hurricanes in the Caribbean, but also for cyclones and typhoons in other parts of the world.

In 2008, researchers at Florida State University in Tallahassee found that Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with their wind speed rising significantly.

"Our results are qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that as the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind," they wrote in the journal "Nature."

Latif agrees. "The destructiveness of tropical storms in general has increased - just look at Harvey, with its enormous amounts of rain. And now Irma is record-breaking - again - we've never seen such high wind speeds over such a big area."

Climate models forecast that hurricanes will become more intense - and more frequent - in the future.

Terry Dinan of the United States Congressional Budget Office in Washington assessed the potential increase in wind and storm surge damage caused by hurricanes making landfall in the US between now and 2075- He found that "climate change and coastal development will cause hurricane damage to increase faster than the US economy is expected to grow."

Moreover, the number of people facing substantial damage will increase more than eight-fold over the next 60 years, he wrote in the journal "Ecological Economics."

"What we are now experiencing is a foretaste of what climate models let us expect for the future," meteorologist Friedrich says.

The last Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Andrew, which lashed South Florida with wind gusts of up to 177 miles per hour in 1992.


.

Hurricane Irma compared to Hurricane Andrew


The above GIF, assembled from GOES satellite data by Joel Nihlean, combines images of the two hurricanes to compare them side-by-side to scale. Not only is Irma more powerful, it’s also much larger: One recent estimate showed that Irma packs more than five times Andrew’s destructive potential. Its hurricane-force winds cover an area roughly the size of Massachusetts.

Irma’s sustained winds are now 175 mph, with gusts reaching 210 mph. Meteorologists expect very little weakening before it makes landfall in Florida on Sunday. In a briefing on Thursday, the National Weather Service in Miami said that Irma could leave parts of South Florida “uninhabitable."
forum Politics and Society ›› The Weather & Climate Change ›› new reply Post Reply

Quick Reply - RE: The Weather & Climate Change

Connect with Facebook to comment: Login w/FB

or Sign up free! - or login:







Subject


wrap selection with italics
wrap selection with bold
insert less than symbol
insert greater than symbol


google image Insert Google Images
Share a Band



Your ad here?